A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
